Covid-19: Should we expect the economy to crash?
In just three months, global growth forecasts have been reduced. The IMF predicts that the global economy will contract by 3% in 2020, a greater slowdown than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
In France, more than 9 million employees are currently on partial unemployment, 130,000 companies have benefited from the loan guaranteed by the State, one million small businesses have requested assistance from the solidarity fund. The national aid plan reached, on April 19, 331 billion euros. And after, chaos?
Several consulting firms and analysis institutes have looked into the short, medium and long-term economic hypotheses. Sociacom takes stock.
BCG's 3 hypotheses
Boston Consulting Group considers three takeover scenarios :
-
The first is a complete and total resumption of economic activities after the number of COVID-19 patients has reached 0, with minimal restrictions but strict border control, and induces a strong testing capacity and a strong autonomy of the country. . This is the bet that China has adopted in particular.
-
The second aims for a global revival of activity after a period of confinement with strict isolation of populations at risk until a vaccine is obtained. This short-term strategy can pay off for countries with limited means that cannot do without international aid.
-
The third is a gradual approach, with restrictions being lifted in stages as the disease progresses. This is the most popular approach in the world and particularly in France.
Is a Big One looming?
The massive use of state mechanisms in France shows that this crisis has an impact on the entire economy. The government announces -8% growth in 2020, the worst recession since 1945.
Certain sectors are obviously more affected than others, such as catering, tourism, events, where other businesses such as basic necessities businesses see their turnover grow by nearly 20%._cc781905-5cde- 3194-bb3b-136bad5cf58d_
The analysis institutexerfi predicted on April 20, a decline in French GDP of around 7.6% in 2020.
“The rebound in activity in 2021 (+8.2%), despite its apparent symmetry with the unwinding of the previous year, in fact conceals an incomplete recovery of the economy, explains Xerfi._cc781905-5cde- 3194-bb3b-136bad5cf58d_(...) It can be estimated that a third of the economy is in a disaster situation, with powerful depressive effects on 50% of GDP. Some sectors, even if they cushion the shock in the short term, are particularly exposed to lasting depressive risks (...): aeronautics, the media (faced with the decline in advertising revenues) or certain BtoB sectors which will serve as a variable of adjustment. »
The fear of a " Big One " hovers. And with it, the fear of the collapse of the financial system unable to support the demand for working capital from companies. Fortunately many States have today guaranteed their support for financial institutions. The hypothesis therefore loses credibility.
Financial institutions, on the other hand, are more directly impacted by the inversion of the yield curve, which consumes their interest margins, and by the rise in bad debts on their assets, linked to the sharp increase in the risk of bankruptcy of the companies on which they are exposed. In particular, they are particularly exposed to the energy sector, which could experience significant corporate failures.
The gradual global recovery before 2021?
Another predictive track, the Chinese scenario. Based on Chinese economic forecasts which are three months ahead of us in this crisis, the impact would last two quarters. If we apply this projection to the French case, we could estimate a nominal economic recovery around Q4, i.e. at the beginning of October.
This is partially in line with the firm's conclusionsMcKinseywhich also sees a gradual global recovery spread out by business sector.
“We have to hold out until the end of the year, estimated a partner of the strategy consulting firmRoland BergerinConsultant.You have to reduce your cost base, while remaining able to sustain the market as soon as it picks up. national, to reap all the fruits.”
The numbers change from day to day. If predicting the state of the French and global economy after the crisis is tricky, preparing for the aftermath will also prove sterile for many sectors, for which the losses recorded will probably be irrecoverable.
Share this article
+ Contact us